ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 28, 2025
ETF Tracker StatSheet
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TARIFF WORRIES AND INFLATION DATA DRIVE MARKETS DOWN; GOLD SHINES
- Moving the market
Uncertainty about upcoming tariffs and the latest key inflation data pulled the markets into the red early on, with the downward trend accelerating throughout the session. All major indexes have now set the unfortunate record of being in the red for Q1 2025.
Consumer sentiment for March missed expectations, while the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), one of the Fed’s favorite gauges, rose 2.8% in February, slightly higher than expected. This represents a 0.4% increase for the month.
It confirmed fears of persistent inflation, sending the major indexes down and gold surging. Trump’s earlier 25% tariff on all cars not made in the U.S. set a negative tone for stocks, and next week’s increase on April 2nd may not be positive for the markets either.
Adding to the bearish sentiment were weaker-than-expected consumer spending figures. Combined with a hotter core PCE and rising inflation expectations, this has intensified concerns about the much-dreaded “stagflation” scenario.
Even dropping bond yields, both today and year-to-date (YTD), were unable to stem the bearish tide.
YTD, the dollar ended lower but bounced off its 200-day moving average (200DMA), while Bitcoin also slipped but remains well above pre-election levels, despite breaking below its 200DMA today.
On a positive note, gold was the top performer YTD with a gain of over 17%, marking its best start to a year since 1986. Fortunately, we had a large allocation to this precious metal, which set a record high by crossing the $3,100 level for the first time today.
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